Moody’s Investors Service analysis projects an 11 million increase in battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales in 2023 compared to the previous year, representing a solid year-to-year rise of one-third. This surge brings BEV sales to 12.5% of global car sales, which reached 89.8 million units last year, nearly matching pre-pandemic numbers. However, Moody’s predicts that reaching the previous peak of 95 million vehicles will likely take until at least 2026.
The BEV share is expected to increase to 15% in 2024, slightly lower than Moody’s previous estimate of 16%. Despite recent sales slowdowns, the analysis suggests that the transition to electric vehicles will continue. The slowdown is attributed to the end of government incentive schemes in Europe and the increasing complexity of purchasing an EV in the USA. However, it is anticipated that BEV manufacturers will offer attractive discounts to gain a larger market share. This prediction aligns with our recent report, about BYD’s price war against its competitors in China.
Moody’s predictions for Europe
Similar competition is anticipated in Europe, where Chinese EV brands are struggling to compete against traditional car manufacturers. The increasing availability of affordable EVs is expected to drive EV adoption in Europe. Meanwhile, expensive EVs, such as those manufactured by Mercedes, are struggling to find customers, while luxury Chinese brands like Nio are on the brink of defeat in the European Union.
An EV model you’ll find interesting: GWM Ora
Manufacturers’ margins are expected to decrease to around 8%, which would still yield a healthy profit with economies of scale. Despite these challenges, Moody’s expects BEVs to account for a third of global sales by 2030.